Pakistan economy projections

PAKISTAN’S economic growth is on track to achieve its highest level in the last eleven years. “Average heading inflation remains within the forecast range of SBP, but core inflation has continued to increase”, says a statement issued by State Bank of Pakistan. Though growth accelerated at the end of FY2017 , mainly on recovery in agriculture and stronger manufacturing but the other fundamentals remained subdued. With higher global prices for oil and other commodities, inflation exceeded the forecast. The projection for the current account deficit was surpassed by a wide margin because of a very large increase in imports. Foreign exchange reserves were drawn down to fill a financing gap. For FY2018, projections for growth and inflation are maintained, but the current account deficit is expected to exceed the earlier forecast again by a wide margin.

Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have significantly worsened in the past one year and heavy reliance on short-term foreign commercial loans can create repayment issues for Islamabad, warned the World Bank recently in a demeaning report. But, to some extent, government’s concerted efforts has led to macro-economic stability so national economy was moving steadily on the path of growth, though bumpy. The economic data for the recent months showed increased economic activity which is encouraging.

The government has taken important measures for enhancing exports and would extend all possible support to the Textile industry along with other sectors of the economy and provide an environment, conducive to fostering business activities. The IMF delegation, on their visit, discussed with the Adviser on Finance, matters related to growth of textile exports and requested for processing of tax refund, drawback cases on priority basis as it would resolve liquidity issues faced by exporters / manufacturers, and capital thus made available could be deployed by them towards expanding their businesses, in turn, helping country’s export earnings. The export growth in the recent months is heartening and the exporters should put in greater effort to make sure that this rising trend is maintained in the future as well. Thus there are mixed signals with regards to Pakistan economy in the immediate future, at least. Fiscal deficit for HH1-FY18 is expected to fall close to the last year’s 2.5 percent. There has been visible improvement in export growth and remittances are marginally higher. However, largely due to high level of imports the current account deficit remains under pressure. The exchange rate adjustment in December 2017 is expected to help ease the pressure on the external front.

Benefiting from both infrastructure and CPEC related investments, construction and its allied industries are expected to maintain their higher growth momentum. After incorporating the impact of commodity sector dynamics on the services sector, the real GDP growth is projected to be around 5.8 percent, significantly higher than FY17, but marginally lower than the annual target of 6 percent for FY18. This is largely due to expectations of a below-target wheat crop because of a reduction in area under cultivation. On the external front, export receipts posted the highest growth in the last seven years of 10.8 percent in HI-FY18 against a reduction of 1.4 percent in H1-FY17. Worker’s remittances also recorded growth (2.5 percent) during the first half of the year as compared to a decline in the same period last year. However, favourable impact of these positives was overshadowed by the continuation of strong growth in imports of good and services. Key challenges remain, however, regarding governance and security issues, reviving agriculture and improving its productivity, increasing exports and attracting investment, strengthening public enterprises, and improving the business and regulatory environment. The report observed that the planned reduction in the FY2017 budget deficit would enhance funding for private sector credit and better enable it to meet rising domestic demand.

Exports are expected to perform better during the year, increasing by nearly 5% as a recovery in cotton production underpins an upturn in textile sales, and as global prices for non-oil commodities reverse from a sharp decline to a modest increase. The report added that the mobilization of larger inflows into the capital and financial accounts had been central to the 3-year economic program with the IMF, and these flows are projected to increase to $6.5 billion in FY2017, mainly with more foreign direct investment and continuing sizeable official flows. Thus, even with the projected widening of the current account deficit, the overall balance should remain in surplus, augmenting official reserves. The corridor project with the China is expected to attract more foreign direct investment, and already in 2015 investors announced 40 greenfield projects worth a remarkable $19 billion, or 4 times the norm in recent years. Moreover, the decision by Morgan Stanley Capital International to put Pakistan in its MSCI emerging market index, effective from May 2017, will likely spur equity portfolio inflows. The real estate market gives another indication of the health of the economy and consumer confidence. It has been booming since last 3-4 years though in recent months it has slowed a bit due to political turmoil and un-certainty and Law and order issues, particularly in Balochistan. Consumer spending has increased thus bringing in more cash flow which is a healthier sign. If the government adopts prudent monetary and fiscal policies and above all controls rampant corruption, the economic fundamentals will further improve.

— The writer is former DG (Emigration) and consultant ILO, IOM.

Hunger concept

Pakistan is facing a serious hunger problem and the situation is likely to worsen in the coming years.

Pakistan has been ranked as a country with “serious” hunger level with 22 per cent of its population undernourished on the Global Hunger Index released Tuesday.

How is Pakistan affected by climate change?

Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change by the following ways:

  1. Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows over time as glaciers recede.
  2. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the population.
  3. Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.
  4. Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production. Combining the decreased yields with the current rapid population growth and urbanization in the country, the risk of hunger and food security will remain high.
  5. Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera.
  6. The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration patterns.

Six Things to Know About Poverty in Pakistan

Poverty is a global affliction affecting numerous countries in the developing world. Pakistan, a country in South Asia, is home to millions of people who live in extreme poverty. Poverty in Pakistan is on track to decrease, but there is still work to be done.

With approximately 185 million citizens, Pakistan ranks 147th out of 188 countries in the Human Development Index (HDI). Reports on poverty in Pakistan show that as much as 40 percent of the population–roughly the size of the population of Florida, California and New York combined–live beneath the poverty line.

The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report by the Pakistan Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform in June 2016 shows that 39 percent of Pakistanis live in multidimensional poverty. The MPI methodology, developed by UNDP and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative in 2010, uses a broader concept of poverty by reflecting people’s deprivations related to health, education and standard of living in addition to income and wealth.

Regional and Provincial Disparities

The report states that national poverty rates in Pakistan fell from 55 percent to 39 percent from 2004 to 2015. This is a strong decline; however, development across different regions of the country is uneven. Poverty in urban areas is at 9.3 percent as compared to 54.6 percent in rural areas. Similarly, great disparities exist across provinces, with the highest rates of poverty in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan. The MPI report states that that “over two-thirds of people in FATA (73 percent) and Balochistan (71 percent) live in multidimensional poverty. Poverty in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa stands at 49 percent, Gilgit-Baltistan and Sindh at 43 percent, Punjab at 31 percent and Azad Jammu and Kashmir at 25 percent.”

Some districts such as Qilla Abdullah, Harnai and Barkhan in Balochistan have more than 90 percent poverty compared to Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore, in which less than 10 percent of residents live in multidimensional poverty. The report also found that the decrease in multidimensional poverty in Balochistan was the slowest while poverty levels had actually increased there and in Sindh province in the past decade.

Corruption
Despite being the second largest economy in South Asia, development is limited by entrenched poverty in Pakistan, social inequality, lack of access to social services and extreme corruption. The 2016 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International ranks Pakistan 116th globally. Corruption in Pakistan is not a new phenomenon. Recent Panama leaks involving the Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s three children are just one example: they owned offshore companies and assets not shown on his family’s wealth statement. This and other cases of corruption by political and military elites have made it impossible to alleviate widespread poverty.

Population Boom
Burgeoning population growth is another major issue that weighs down Pakistan’s socio-economic development. According to some reports, in the past 10 to15 years, the population of Pakistan has grown by more than 40 million, making it the sixth most populous country in the world. Another report found that Pakistan’s population increases by 1.8 percent per year. By that rate, it is feared that, if the nightmarish growth goes unchecked, the country’s population will be 245 million by 2030.

Development and Conflict
Pakistan is caught between the United States’ War on Terrorism in Afghanistan and an increasingly unstable relationship with India. Tackling poverty is important because economic instability and a lack of development can only lead to conflict and violence, domestically and regionally. In the past two decades, Pakistan has seen increasing violence at the hands of militant jihadists and Baloch insurgents. Rather than bettering the lives of common people by introducing broad-based socio-economic reforms, the Pakistani state uses excessive military force to “resolve” issues in the country’s northern and southwestern regions. Unending conflicts are another reason why it is difficult for development to take place.

Disproportionate Defense Spending
Most importantly, instead of allocating sufficient funds to address both acute and long-standing poverty, the country spends the largest amount of national expenditures on defense. A May 2017 report showed that “Pakistan’s defense expenditure in the next financial year (2017-18) will be around seven percent higher than it was in the outgoing year to Rs920.2 billion (USD$8.65 billion).” It was Rs841 billion (USD$7.9 billion) for the year 2016-2017. In contrast, Pakistan spends only 2.6 percent of its GDP on education, which is the lowest in South Asia.

Consequences of Poverty
Grinding poverty and lack of development fuel child labor, illiteracy, religious extremism and endless conflicts on massive scales. The Gross National Income per capita is only $5,031. Life expectancy in Pakistanis at 66.4 years and the expected years of schooling is miserably low at 8.1 years. These figures are among the lowest in the world.

Way Forward
The good news is that poverty in Pakistan decreased by 15 percent in the past decade, but, given the grim lows overall, this figure is less than encouraging. In order to alleviate poverty, policymakers need to focus on achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Although it is a big challenge for an underdeveloped country like Pakistan, meeting the SDGs is important since they provide the best possible integrated way for inclusive growth, peace and development.

Finally, policymakers should also focus on addressing the poverty of opportunity. The poverty of income is a result of the poverty of opportunity. Poverty in Pakistan is a multidimensional problem requiring multidimensional solutions.

– Aslam Kakar

The ‘Paigham-i-Pakistan’

Dr Muhammad Khan
WITH the nomenclature of ‘Paigham-i-Pakistan’ a counter terrorism and counter extremism narrative (Fatwa) was unveiled by the scholars of almost all religious schools of thought in Pakistan. The narrative is nothing new, but a reiteration of the essence of Islam, which rejects the very basis of extremism, radicalism and terrorism. On January 16, 2018, this narrative was formally launched at Aiwan-i-Sadar, Islamabad in a very formal ceremony. The ceremony was attended by prominent scholars from all religious groups, people from academia, international community representatives, ambassadors of some friendly countries, the political leadership of Pakistan and above all the symbol of unity, the President of Pakistan. The ground work on the Paigham-i-Pakistan Fatwa was done by International Islamic University (IIU), Islamabad. This took over 8-10 months of progressive debate and seminars, participated by wider community of the religious scholars, media people and academicians.

President Mamnoon Hussai while addressing the ceremony said that, launch of this national counter-terrorism narrative is manifestation of the fact that, Pakistani nation is extremely serious to get rid of the menace of extremism and terrorism from Pakistani society. He said, “I believe that this decree, prepared in the light of true teachings of Islam, will transform their hearts and pave the way for their salvation in the hereinafter.” Highlighting the true teaching of this great religion, President also said that, ‘ extremism, bloodshed and suicide-bombing were categorized as spreading evil on earth (Fasaad-fil-Ard), which has no place in the religion, thus stands prohibited and unjustified.’

Indeed, the Constitution of Pakistan is in line with the teaching of the Holy Quran and the Sunnah of Holy Prophet (PBUH). If we follow the constitution of Pakistan in letter and in spirit, all evils in the implementation of rule of business and obstacles in the implementation of true teaching will be removed. “It is our foremost responsibility that we must hold this foundation (Constitution). It is the base which will provide us the strength to achieve a dignified place amongst the comity of nations and enable us to meet the challenges at national level.”

Being the worst sufferers of the terrorism, the people of Pakistan have unanimously rejected the narratives of all terrorist organizations, since they are against Islam and humanity. The word Islam itself denotes peace and Holy Quran ‘teaches love and compassion for every human being’ irrespective of their religion. Indeed, Islam denounces terrorism and the violent and intolerant beliefs. Truly the radicalization, the extremism and the terrorism is not the agenda of Muslims and Islam. Then, why Muslims are blamed for promoting and undertaking this menace of terrorism? A simple answer is that, all major terrorist attacks were either done by Muslims and most of the terrorism is found in Islamic world, therefore they get the discredit. But, nobody has ever tried to unearth the motives behind promotion of radicalisation, extremism and terrorism in Muslim world. This has not been done even by the affected class; the Muslim scholars.

Owing to socio-economic deprivation, which indeed is a governance issues, the Muslim streets get into an extreme mindset. This extreme mindset push them towards radicalisation which subsequently outbursts into violence and terrorism. Since Muslim world has been bestowed by Allah Almighty with numerous resources and strategically located geopolitics therefore, as a rule of power politics, the international forces exploit the available opportunities, which is the law of nature. In the process, the elites (ruling class) lose the trust of masses and feel vulnerable, thus take support from external power(s), at the time of domestic violence. The external power(s) then, decides as per its own national interests and convenience. They exploit both; the elites for their obvious susceptibility and streets to use them against the rulers as well as for their strategic and economic achievability.

This cycle of exploitation then continues unabated. There is a need for the farsightedness among the Muslim world, the ruling elites can remove the basic anomalies and disparities, found among the masses of the Muslim world. Addressing the socio-economic deprivations would create the element of trust among the ruling class and the deprived masses. A good governance calls for a better care of the masses in all respect. This is the essence of Islam and humanity. Let’s have a positive usage of Islam as a religion as per its essence. The essence of Islam is education as mention above. The current anti-Islam narratives of terrorists, while taking cover of Islam have created a scare among the youth. Let’s promote the education for discarding the narratives of terrorists as well as of those forces, conspiring against education, religion and state of Pakistan.

Paigham-i-Pakistan is not only a new narrative for the youth of Pakistan, but it is indeed a reminder to everyone that, we were betrayed by a class of people in the name Islam. But, the truth is that, the promoters of that form of Islam know nothing about the Islam and its true teachings. As clearly highlighted by Interior Minister Ahsan Iqbal, let’s not waste another 400 years and try to cash the opportunities for seeking knowledge, the knowledge of information technology and innovation. There is an urgent need for Muslim nations to progress and have something positive to show. “If we want to correct our direction for the future, it is necessary that society is peaceful and stable because without them we cannot embark on this journey. We must introspect and look within instead of hypothesising about conspiracies. We need to be ready and accountable in order to undertake this journey.” The Fatwa, ‘Paigham-i-Pakistan’ “will provide a platform for national unity… So that in the 21st century, we can make Pakistan a distinguished country, an Asian tiger, and bring the Quaid’s dream to fruition.”

— The writer, Professor of Politics and International Relations, is based in Islamabad.

Help educate children

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Stop war and violence

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Day after tornado

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